30 Sept 2026
Indian markets, with the context left in
Every number on this site comes with its full history, where today sits in it, how it was computed, and the data to check it yourself. Where a popular idea doesn't survive testing, we say so.
Higher than 37% of readings since 2003
Higher than 96% of readings since 1999
Higher than 67% of readings since 2018
What didn't survive testing
Trend-following rules
They roughly halve large-cap drawdowns, but after costs and tax none beats buying and holding, and none survives a correction for the 35 rules tried.
IPO underperformance
The US finding doesn't hold here: a portfolio of recent IPOs earned 4.1% a year over Nifty 500, statistically zero. But the median IPO trails.
"Valuation-driven" hybrids
Balanced advantage funds' estimated net equity barely moves with market valuation: the median fund's correlation with P/E is −0.22.
Global liquidity and FPIs
Weekly foreign flows into India correlate with US liquidity, yields and the dollar at under 0.1 over the full period.
Sections
Market breadth
How many stocks are actually rising: moving averages, highs and lows, advance-decline, since 2003.
Indices
Year-by-year and month-by-month returns for about 130 NSE indices.
Market activity
NSE's turnover, trades, trade size, companies and derivatives, every segment since 1999.
Valuation
P/E, P/B, dividend yield and our own CAPE for 22 indices, against their history and against bonds.
Models
Trend and momentum rules on Indian indices, pre-registered, after tax. Mostly null results.
Portfolio lab
Nine asset-allocation mixes of Indian equity, bonds, gold and cash since 2002, after tax.
Flows
Who is buying: FPIs, domestic institutions, mutual funds, insurers, retail; SIPs and NPS.
Mutual funds
Balanced advantage funds' real net equity, small-cap liquidity stress tests, category flows.
ETF desk
Cost, tracking difference, premium to NAV and liquidity for every NSE-listed ETF.
Ownership
Who owns India Inc.: promoters, FIIs, DIIs, mutual funds, LIC and retail, quarterly since 2009 (data: PRIME Database).
IPOs
Listing gains, returns after listing against the market, and a heat gauge for the IPO cycle.
Rates and credit
The G-sec curve, corporate and NBFC spreads, T-bills and money markets.
India macro
Inflation, growth, jobs, rates and credit from MoSPI and RBI, checked against official prints.
Global macro
US rates and curve, the Fed, the dollar, oil, and how little they explain FPI flows.
World markets
How the major stock markets did against the Nifty, in local currency and in rupees.