The US 10-year Treasury yields 5.26%, against 4.15% a year ago. US rates, the dollar and global liquidity are the backdrop for foreign money in India, though, as the last section shows, a weaker one than often claimed.
For: investors who want the global context for FPI flows and the rupee.
US 10-year Treasury
5.26%
29 Sept 2026 · a year ago 4.15% Higher than 49% of readings since 1962
US 10-year minus 2-year
+0.37 pts
29 Sept 2026 · a year ago +0.52 pts Higher than 33% of readings since 1976
US CPI inflation
3.4%
Aug 2026 · a year ago 2.9% Higher than 63% of readings since 1914
Fed balance sheet, $ billion
6,748
23 Sept 2026 · a year ago 6,609 Higher than 79% of readings since 2002
Broad dollar index (2006 = 100)
120.3
25 Sept 2026 · a year ago 120.5 Higher than 85% of readings since 2006
Brent crude, $ a barrel
114.0
29 Sept 2026 · a year ago 69.0 Higher than 96% of readings since 1987
US rates
US Treasury yields
Weekly, constant maturity, from 2000. Federal Reserve H.15.
3 months2 years10 years30 years
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Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15 Selected Interest Rates (US Treasury constant-maturity yields), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Month-end. Below zero: inverted, which has preceded most US recessions.
10-year minus 2-year10-year minus 3-month
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Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15 Selected Interest Rates (US Treasury constant-maturity yields), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
The nominal 10-year yield is the sum of the two lines.
Real (TIPS) yieldBreakeven inflation
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Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System H.15 (10-year TIPS yield DFII10, 10-year yield DGS10) and FRED's 10-year breakeven T10YIE, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Weekly. Net liquidity = Fed assets minus the Treasury's cash account minus overnight reverse repos.
Fed total assetsNet liquidity
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Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances (WALCL, WDTGAL, WTREGEN); Federal Reserve Bank of New York, temporary open market operations (RRPONTSYD); via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year on year. October 2025 CPI was never published (government shutdown) and is left blank.
CPICore CPICore PCE
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Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U: CPIAUCNS, CPILFENS; unemployment UNRATE; payrolls PAYEMS), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, PCE price index (PCEPI, PCEPILFE), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U: CPIAUCNS, CPILFENS; unemployment UNRATE; payrolls PAYEMS), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15 (effective federal funds rate FEDFUNDS) and H.6 (M2SL), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
S&P 500 drawdown, weekly. Shown as a derived measure only; index levels are S&P's to license.
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Source: Derived from S&P 500 (S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC) and Cboe VIX closes as distributed by FRED; levels are third-party copyrighted and not published
Less than you'd think. Over the full period, weekly FPI equity flows into India correlate with changes in US net liquidity, the 10-year yield and the dollar at between −0.02 and −0.09: close to nothing. The rolling correlations swing from −0.40 to +0.35. The steadiest monthly link is with the dollar, at −0.33. Descriptive, not causal.
Rolling 52-week correlation of weekly FPI equity flows with…
Each line: correlation of FPI net equity buying with the weekly change in that driver.
vs dollarvs US 10-yearvs Fed net liquidity
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Source: FPI net investment: NSDL daily (US$) and RBI monthly portfolio investment (US$), via IndiaDataHub; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances (WALCL, WDTGAL, WTREGEN); Federal Reserve Bank of New York, temporary open market operations (RRPONTSYD); via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15 Selected Interest Rates (US Treasury constant-maturity yields), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates (DTWEXBGS, DEXINUS), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Both standardised to z-scores so they share one axis. Monthly from 2003.
FPI inflows, 12-month sumDollar, year on year
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Source: FPI net investment: NSDL daily (US$) and RBI monthly portfolio investment (US$), via IndiaDataHub; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances (WALCL, WDTGAL, WTREGEN); Federal Reserve Bank of New York, temporary open market operations (RRPONTSYD); via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15 Selected Interest Rates (US Treasury constant-maturity yields), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates (DTWEXBGS, DEXINUS), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis